Wii Worldwide Sales to Surpass Xbox360 worlwide sales by end of 2007-early 2008

The 360 has had a full year head start against its competitors, hoping to establish a strong foothold in the next generation battle for market share. Currently (i.e. May 11, 2007) Microsoft holds on to approximately 48.5% of the worldwide "new-gen" console market, where Nintendo and Sony represent the remaining 35% and 16.5% of the market, respectively. Having the additional year to sell units definitely provided Microsoft with a lead, but considering the current sales figures for the remaining next-gen systems, will that lead soon be lost? The biggest contender to de-thrown Microsoft is Nintendo and, if sales continue as seen over the past couple months; it may not be too long before this change in the leading console occurs. Following the recent report by TheSource stating the improbability of Wii sales catching up to 360 sales in North America, looking at worldwide figures paints a different picture – one that shows it is quite probable that Wii sales will surpass 360 sales, and that this may occur between late 2007 and early 2008.

Over the past 4 months, the 360 has sold an average of 203,872 units per month in North America. In Japan, approximately 23,712 360s are sold per month, and (determined with limited data) the 360 sold an average of 160,000 (derived by dividing the number of units sold in Other regions by the number of months since the release of the system) units per month in “Other” regions. Adding these values estimates that, on average, 387,584 Xbox 360s are being sold worldwide per month.

Over the past 4 months, the Wii has sold an average of 303,446 units a month in North America. In Japan, approximately 331,748 Wiis are sold each month, and (derived in the same manner as the 360) Other regions average 290,000 units per month. Adding these values estimates that, on average, 925,194 Wiis are being sold worldwide each month.

These results of course do not take into any increases in sales due to potential price drops, highly anticipated software releases, or any other reasons for why hardware sales could spike during some upcoming period as these are all fairly unpredictable factors. Current monthly sales for the 360 may be lower as a result of consumers holding off and waiting to buy the Elite 360 or awaiting a price drop. On the other hand, despite booming worldwide sales, it is likely that shortages may be leading to an under-representation of what the Wii could truly be selling. It is also possible for the PS3 to garner more support and sales making it more of a contender in the current race for top selling console. Since we cannot actually see into the future, whether the Wii truly surpasses the 360 cannot be said for certain; however, IF sales continue to follow the current trend, projecting into future months, we can estimate that the Wii will catch up, and acquire the majority of the console market within the next few months. Unexpected factors may extend the 360s lead into 2008; however, the possibility of worldwide Wii sales catching up to the 360 seems to be less of a possibility and more of a probability. When exactly this will occur has yet to be seen; however, although the Wii may never dominate in North America, projective results, based on recent sales figures, reveal that worldwide Wii sales will catch up to 360 sales in September 2007 and then surpass them by October 2007

source